📈 Silicon Metal Price Trends: 2024–2026 Data & Outlook

Silicon metal prices moved through a volatile two-year cycle: a sharp correction in late 2025, a steady rebound across the first half of 2026, and a cautiously firm outlook for the remainder of the year. For buyers sourcing industrial silicon from China, Europe, or the Americas, understanding what pushed prices down and what is pulling them back up is the difference between overpaying and locking in at the right moment.

What Drove the 2025 Price Slump?

The global silicon metal price average opened near USD 2,087 per metric ton in Q1 2025 and climbed to roughly USD 2,171/MT by Q4, but the headline masked deep regional pain. Chinese producers were caught in a persistent oversupply trap. Domestic prices eased from about USD 1,350/MT in early 2025 to near USD 1,303/MT by year-end, a decline of just above 3.5%. Factory inventories ballooned. Subdued downstream buying after the Lunar New Year period, limited offtake from polysilicon and aluminum sectors, and comfortable export logistics all worked to keep Chinese pricing at multi-year lows.

In Europe, the picture was different but still soft. German prices climbed from roughly USD 1,650/MT in Q1 2025 to near USD 1,766/MT by Q4, a 7% annual gain, but the sharp correction that followed in early 2026 erased much of that progress. In the United States, antidumping actions and existing tariffs on several Asian origins widened regional price spreads, pushing domestic pricing from about USD 2,750/MT in Q1 to near USD 2,870/MT by Q4. The US market held the highest absolute cost among tracked regions, yet even there, cautious purchasing and elevated market availability weighed on realized prices.

Ferroglobe, one of the largest Western producers, reported a silicon metal average selling price of USD 2,916/MT in Q2 2025, down from prior peaks. Adjusted EBITDA for the silicon metal segment turned negative, at $(8.9) million for the first half of 2025, underscoring how squeezed margins had become.

How Did Prices Recover in H1 2026?

The rebound began in Q1 2026. Post-Lunar New Year restocking from EV battery anode and silicone polymer buyers lifted procurement volumes. Firmer electricity tariffs raised the arc furnace production cost floor in China. Chinese prices recovered to USD 1.44/kg (approximately USD 1,440/MT) from the Q4 2025 oversupply low.

By Q2 2026, the momentum continued. The global average rose from USD 1.818/KG in Q1 to about USD 1.945/KG in Q2, a gain of roughly 7.0%. Regional spot prices firmed across the board:

• United States: USD 2.20/kg (≈ USD 2,200/MT), up 6.8% quarter-on-quarter
• China: USD 1.54/kg (≈ USD 1,540/MT), up 6.9% quarter-on-quarter
• Germany: USD 2.62/kg (≈ USD 2,620/MT), up 6.9% quarter-on-quarter
• India: USD 2.07/kg (≈ USD 2,070/MT), up 7.3% quarter-on-quarter

Ferroglobe's Q2 2026 silicon metal shipments surged 33.7% sequentially to 40,818 metric tons, reflecting higher volumes in both EMEA and the United States. Revenue for the segment increased 25.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD 105.8 million, even though the average realized price slipped 5.9% to USD 2,592/MT due to softer European pricing.

On the Chinese domestic market, as of late August 2026, SMM data showed oxygen-blown silicon metal 553 in east China at CNY 9,300–9,500 per metric ton, silicon metal 441 at CNY 9,500–9,600/MT, and 3303-grade at CNY 10,100–10,200/MT. The 553# non-oxygen-blown grade was quoted near CNY 9,200/MT. Prices edged up within a narrow range as suppliers held firm and just-in-time orders from aluminum alloy and silicone sectors were released.

Regional Price Spread: Why the Gap Keeps Widening

The spread between the cheapest and most expensive markets has become a structural feature of the silicon metal trade. In Q2 2026, German prices were roughly 70% higher than Chinese prices. Three forces explain this:

Electricity costs. European submerged-arc furnace operators face electricity tariffs that dwarf those in China's western provinces, where coal and hydro power keep smelting costs low. Germany's high electricity and ore costs keep it the most expensive production region tracked.

Trade policy. United States antidumping actions and tariffs on several Asian origins have lifted North American premiums well above Asia-Pacific benchmarks. Importers into the US face a significant tariff wall that Chinese exporters routing through third countries only partially avoid.

Freight and logistics. Middle East quartz and coal supply disruptions added cost premiums to ore and reductant logistics during H1 2026, hitting European producers harder than vertically integrated Chinese smelters with domestic raw material access.

📊 Q1–Q2 2026 Regional Price Comparison

Source: Expert Market Research price-tracking data, Q1–Q2 2026.

What Is the H2 2026 Forecast?

Analysts expect the global silicon metal price average to run in the USD 1.96–2.18 per kilogram range (roughly USD 1,960–2,180/MT) for the second half of 2026. Continued firming is anticipated on three grounds: Chinese production discipline is holding after the H2 2025 oversupply period; EV battery anode and solar polysilicon demand is accelerating; and Middle East quartz and coal supply disruptions are keeping raw material costs elevated.

However, headwinds remain. China's silicon metal inventory stood at 724,500 metric tons at the end of August 2026 according to BaiChuan data, with factory inventory at 347,200 MT, market inventory at 209,500 MT, and registered warehouse-receipt inventory at 167,800 MT. That stockpile is large enough to cap any sharp rally if producers decide to destock aggressively. August output of 352,700 MT, down 1.89 MT month-on-month, suggests some discipline, but the Jan-Aug cumulative of 2,595,900 MT is still up 1.78% year-on-year.

⚠️ Key Drivers Buyers Should Watch

• Chinese production cuts: Large-plant reductions scheduled for late September and October 2026 could tighten supply faster than expected.
• Polysilicon sector health: SMM data shows August polysilicon output at 108,000 MT, but margins remain deeply negative. A wave of polysilicon closures would cut silicon metal offtake sharply.
• Aluminum alloy demand: Jan-Jul 2026 Chinese aluminum alloy output was up 1.80% YoY to 10.82 million MT. Any slowdown in auto or construction would feed back into silicon consumption.
• Electricity policy in China: Tariff adjustments in Yunnan and Sichuan, the two lowest-cost smelting provinces, directly affect the floor price.

📋 Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current silicon metal price?

As of Q2 2026, the global average sits near USD 1.96–2.18/kg. Regional spot prices range from roughly USD 1,540/MT in China to USD 2,620/MT in Germany, depending on grade and delivery terms.

Why is the US silicon price so much higher than China's?

US antidumping duties and tariffs on Asian-origin silicon metal have created a persistent price premium. North American buyers pay a tariff-driven spread that keeps domestic pricing well above the China export benchmark.

Did silicon metal prices rise or fall in 2025?

The global average rose modestly from about USD 2,087/MT in Q1 to near USD 2,171/MT in Q4, but regional paths diverged sharply. Chinese prices declined over 3.5% while US and German prices climbed on trade barriers and cost inflation.

What caused the H2 2025 price slump?

Persistent Chinese oversupply, weak post-Lunar New Year restocking, and cautious purchasing across aluminum and polysilicon sectors pushed prices to multi-year lows. Elevated inventories capped any recovery attempt.

How do electricity costs affect silicon metal pricing?

Submerged-arc furnace smelting is electricity-intensive. Chinese producers in Yunnan and Sichuan enjoy low hydro and coal power costs, while European operators face tariffs that can add hundreds of dollars per metric ton to the production cost.

Should buyers lock in H2 2026 supply now?

With prices firming and production cuts pending, forward procurement makes sense for buyers with predictable consumption. Spot purchasers may find short-term liquidity comfortable, but seasonal Q4 demand could tighten availability.

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