Silicon Metal Price Trends 2026: What the Benchmarks Say and Where They Head Next

Price data in this report is indicative, collected from SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), ShengYiShe and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and reflects the week ending September 14, 2026. Confirm firm quotes before contracting.

If you buy silicon metal by the container or negotiate annual supply agreements, 2026 has been a year that rewarded patience. Chinese benchmark prices spent the first half grinding lower, touched one-year lows through the summer, and only began to steady in early September as smelter cutbacks finally bit into supply. This page walks through where the main grades stand, what pushed them there, and the signposts worth watching for the rest of the year.

📊Where Prices Stand Right Now

The most quoted reference in the trade is the SMM assessment for oxygen-blown 553 silicon metal, the workhorse grade for aluminium alloying. In East China it was assessed at 9,400–9,600 CNY per metric ton in the week ending September 14, 2026 - up 50 CNY from the prior week, the first meaningful bounce after a long slide. Higher-purity grades held firmer: 441 silicon metal and 421 silicon metal both carried assessments of 9,500–9,700 CNY per ton, while 3303 silicon metal for polysilicon and silicone feedstock traded at 10,200–10,400 CNY per ton, also up 50 CNY week over week.

For a single headline number, the ShengYiShe national average printed 9,490 CNY per ton on September 14 - a level that keeps most smelters within arm's reach of their cost line but leaves little margin for the high-cost producers in Southwest China.

9,400–9,600CNY/mt · SMM 553# oxygen-blown, East China, Sep 14, 2026

8,745CNY/mt · GFEX SI2611 futures close, Sep 11, 2026

436,000 mtChina exports, Jan–Jul 2026, +5% YoY

📈The Shape of the Year: From Premium to One-Year Lows

To understand how unusual 2026 has been, rewind twelve months. In January 2025, 553# was still trading at 11,400–11,800 CNY per ton, supported by restocking ahead of the Spring Festival and healthy aluminium-silicon alloy demand. By December 2025 the same grade had eased to 10,600–10,900 CNY as new capacity in Xinjiang ramped up faster than consumption could absorb.

The first eight months of 2026 extended that decline. The silicon metal market entered what traders openly called one-year-low territory: by early September, spot prices had drifted to the point where the ZhenAn research desk reported the whole complex sitting roughly 15–20% below the corresponding 2025 levels. Two forces did the damage. First, demand from the two biggest consuming segments went soft at the same time - the polysilicon price index slid to about 40.85 yuan per kilogram (with N-type recharging material at just 39–42.6 yuan/kg), squeezing the profitability of every ton of silicon metal that feeds into it, while silicone plants ran at only about 60% operating rates. Second, total supply stayed stubbornly high through the first half, and port inventories accumulated through the summer.

The turn, when it came, came from the supply side. With production cuts in Xinjiang, Yunnan and Sichuan - regions that together account for roughly 70% of national capacity - finally materialising in September, market analysts began projecting a theoretical destocking balance for the month. That is what lifted the weekly assessments off their lows: not a demand recovery, but the simple arithmetic of fewer tons chasing the same orders.

⚖️Grade Spreads and What They Tell You

The gap between grades is a quick health check on end-use demand. When 3303# trades 700–800 CNY above 553#, as it does now, it signals that chemical and solar-chain demand is holding up better relative to supply than the foundry segment. Earlier in 2026 that spread compressed to almost nothing - a symptom of oversupply washing through every grade at once. Buyers of high-purity silicon metal for silicone intermediates generally track the 421#/3303# assessments, while secondary aluminium smelters anchor on 553# with a discount or premium depending on oxygen-blown versus non-oxygen material and iron/aluminium content.

Regional spreads matter just as much. On September 14, 2026, Tianjin port 553# traded at 9,150–9,250 CNY per ton (down 75 CNY on the week), Huangpu port 441# at 9,500–9,600 CNY, and Guangdong 421# at 9,450–9,550 CNY. The Tianjin discount reflects its proximity to the low-cost northern smelters; the premium at southern ports reflects the longer freight haul from Xinjiang and Yunnan. For export FOB business, the arithmetic starts from these port prices plus bagging, documentation and the usual margin stack.

🔮What Moves Prices From Here

1. The cost floor

Industry cost benchmarks published in September 2026 place full cash costs at roughly 8,600–9,200 CNY per ton across the major producing regions. With spot prices sitting only a few hundred CNY above that band, the downside is structurally limited unless electricity or electrode prices collapse. History says smelters will idle furnaces before they sell far below cash cost - which is exactly the behaviour that engineered the September bounce.

2. The futures curve

The GFEX silicon futures contract has become the fastest read on market sentiment. SI2611 traded a 8,700–8,900 CNY range in the week ending September 11 and closed at 8,745 CNY, up 10 CNY on the week, after a volatile session on September 8 that saw the contract spike 1.66% intraday to 8,880 CNY before fading. Chart watchers have fixed on 9,000 CNY as the make-or-break resistance: a sustained break above it would likely pull physical assessments up with it, while rejection keeps the market range-bound into the fourth quarter.

3. Seasonality and power policy

The classic pattern still applies. The June–September rainy season maximises hydropower in Yunnan and Sichuan, capping prices; the dry season and winter heating restrictions typically tighten supply from November onward. Overlay that with pre-Spring-Festival restocking in January and you have the calendar that veteran traders plan around.

Frequently Asked Questions